Abstract: is one of the coastal char
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the Climate Change impact and People’s resilience at Subarnachar, Noakhali district.
Bangladesh is a low lying deltaic country. Bangladesh enjoy the tropical monsoon climate. Subarnachar is one of the coastal char in the southern part of Noakhali District. Bangladesh has long experiences of frequent natural disasters due to climate change that cause loss of life, damage the infrastructures and economic assets, and adversely impact on lives and livelihoods, especially of poor and marginal farmers. This objective of this study to find out the real information between coast people’s vulnerability and climate change hazards and their resilience capacity. An assessment of climate change impact and people’s resilience of Subarnachar is very important issue now a days. A method will be apply for this study comprising qualitative and quantitative techniques for analyzing the data of reviewing the policies including the articles, books, reports, interviews, discussions and maps.
Whereas quantitative analysis will be used to interpret the data gathered from the global positioning system (GPS), questionnaire survey, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Information Interviewer (KII). MS Excel, SPSS will be used for data analysis and research report writing. After completion of data analysis based on findings some recommendations will be made for the policy makers, by using these recommendations they can develop some plans and policies guidelines, which they can provide to the concern authority for taking some programs to reduce the vulnerabilities and enhance their reliance capacity for the sustainable development. Keywords:Climate Change , Resilience, Impact, Response, Vulnerability, SubarnacharIntroductionsClimate change is a long-term change of weather elements over the periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth (IPCC,2007) Ref.
15. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable country of the world in terms of natural disaster. “The World Risk Report 2015” identified Bangladesh as the sixth most natural disaster prone country among 173 countries in the world, bearing the disastrous combination of extreme exposure and high vulnerability. Bangladesh is an agrarian country. It is densely populated country, more than 1063 people live in per square kilometer. The population of Bangladesh is about 158.
90 million in Bangladesh. Most of them (75%) live in the rural area. Agriculture is the main occupation.
It is the single largest sector contributing about 19.09% of GDP and employing about 48.1% of the labor force (BBS, 2008). The location of Bangladesh is in between 200- 260North Latitude and 900-920East Longitude and it enjoy the tropical monsoon climate. Most of the area of Bangladesh is low lying and flat, except some hilly areas in the northeast and southeast.
Most of the landscape is formed on the alluvial sediment. The land is only about 1.5 m above the mean sea level and has a north to south gentle slope. The country is criss-crossed with the 230 major rivers and their tributaries river systems. The rivers drain into the Bay of Bengal in the south. The coastal zone is 47,211 km² of Bangladesh with facing the Bay of Bengal. Bay of Bengal is prone to violent storms surge and tropical cyclones which originate in the Indian Ocean.
In the last 200 years at least 70 major cyclones hit the coast of Bangladesh and during the last 35 years nearly 900,000 people died due to catastrophic cyclones(PDO-ICZMP, 2004:14) Ref.14. The country experiences frequent natural disasters that cause loss of life, damage the infrastructures and economic assets, and adversely impact on lives and livelihoods, especially of costal poor and marginal households. The coastal belt line is about 710 km. in length. Subarnachar Upazila (Noakhali HYPERLINK “http://en.
banglapedia.org/index.php?title=Noakhali_District” o “Noakhali District” ) is one of the coastal Upazila of Noakhali district. It has 382.12 sq. km in land . To understand the lives and livelihoods of the people of Subarachar and their vulnerability due to climate change disasters is necessary to know how people needs and cope with nature, and transform nature into human life.
The Coasts is the place to some of the poorest and most vulnerable people of Bangladesh. This study attempts to find out the major information of coastal people’s vulnerability and climate change hazards and their resilience capacity. People live here with many socio-economic, climate change induced problems by which they face a numerous problems round the year. So, the assessment of the climate change impact and people’s resilience of Subarnachar is very important issue. The main objective of this study is to make some recommendations based on findings for the policy makers by whom they can develop some plans and policies guidelines for the concern authority.
So, they may take initiative some programs to reduce the vulnerabilities and enhance their reliance capacity for the sustainable development. d. Problem Statement Every Research has some limitations which will encounter during the study period to complete research work. Coastal areas of Bangladesh are formed by the siltation of the sediments which are coming through the different rivers channels of the Padma, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. New costal land arose in the river influence mouth or as attached land to the bank of Bay of Bengal as a result of the dynamics of erosion and accretion in the rivers of Bangladesh.
These areas are particularly prone to the effects of frequent climatic affects (floods, salinity, soil erosion and cyclones) which increases the precariousness of poor people’s lives by wiping out their assets and belongings aftermath pushing them deeper into poverty. The population of Subarnachar is about 200,000 where population density is 502 per sq.km. Farmer and fisherman live in Mohammadpur and Char Jublee the southern part of Subarnachar. Moreover people came here from surrounding at the very early time and they started their life with nature, they gradually build the settlement and started cultivation of different crops, cattle, fishing, etc. But most of the time they saw life is not easy at all, even every year they lost their own people, crops, cattle destroyed by severe cyclone, tornadoes, storm surge. Always they fight with these nature even they have to fight among themselves to occupy the land.
One of the researcher should stay in coastal char areas to observe and to get real information what challenges the poor peoples are facing during the cyclone, flood and storm surge or tidal surge and also post of these adverse effects in reality. This is absolutely not possible for the researcher to stay there and observe in the pick hour. To assess the climate change impact is not possible within 3 years, because climate change impact is the long time result of climatic conditions of atmosphere. Moreover to calculate the actual climate change impact on various ways require modern equipment with high technology and modern laboratory facilities indeed, so we should depend secondary sources to assess the impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh.
e. Rationale of the Study For the long time Bangladesh adverse impacted from climate-change hazards such as floods, river erosion, droughts, salinity intrusion, tropical cyclones and storm surges. Lives and livelihoods of the people who are living in the low-lying coastal areas and the islands (chars) and estuaries specially Subarnachar are frequently threatened by flood, soil erosion, salinity intrusion and tropical cyclone. Subarnachar is located in costal zone, with 382.
12 sq. km land area. The study will be conduct on Climate Change impacts and People’s resilience capacity of Subarnachar. It has some physiographical and climatic problems which is vulnerable to climate change. People live here with many socio –economic and climate change induced problems round the year. So, the assessment of the climate change impact and different types of people’s resilience of Subarnachar is very crucial matter.
Agriculture is being seriously affected by climatic change risks caused by integrated effects of the following factors: salinity intrusion, sea level rise, tidal surge, cyclone heat, soil wetness/water stagnancy, fallow/seasonal fallow land, poor health, livelihood, fishermen’s are jobless, migration to cities, unsafe drinking water, etc. The salinity intrusion is a major factor which reduce the crop production at large. A few studies have been done on the Costal climate change impacts and its areas. Most of the studies focused on to find out the information of the threats of climate change and on scientific and technological problem, the social issues was ignored. There is a scarcity of research in the field to identify the real scenario of climate change impact.
So, the researcher made an attempt to identify the real consequences of climate change in Subarnachar. Considering the above circumstances, the present study entitled “Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and People’s Resilience: A Study at Subarnachar, Noakhali. This study aim to find out the link between vulnerability of coastal char people and climate change induced hazards and their resilience capacity. It is expected that the findings of this study would be useful to undertake future development of program and policy formulation for the coastal people of Bangladesh.f.
Research QuestionsThis study would seek to answer the following questions:Why and how the lives and livelihood of the people at Subanachar are vulnerable toClimate Change?How resilient are the people of the study area in extremely climatic condition?g. Research Objectives The overall objective:The overall aim of this study is to draw some recommendations for providing the recommendations or some suggestions to the policy makers to take initiative for making policy programs by which govt. may take further development programs of Subarnachar Upazila ,Noakhali.
The specific objectives of the study are:To assess the impacts of climate change on life and livelihood of Suvanachar of Noakhali .To measure the resilience of char people in terms of extreme climatic condition.h. Literature ReviewA number of relevant documents and literature of the Climate Change and its Impacts issues and related books were collected and reviewed to develop and gain ideas and knowledge more and draw the research gap. Review of the Literature is aimed to find out the research trends and some ideas about the research gaps regarding the”assessment of Climate change Impact and People’s Resilience :A study at Subarnachar , Noakhali”.Many authors, planners and scholars conducted several studies and analyzed the different aspects of climate hazards and related matters in different parts of the world. Related studies on different issues are discussed in the sections below.
Climate: ‘Average weather’ described in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities such as temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. Climate can also be used to describe the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. The period of time normally used is 30 years (WMO). Climate change: Alternations in the state of the climate system over time due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods.” (UNESCO/UNEP 2011; P 67)Climate change scenario projections of Bangladesh in Table-1 shows that rainfall may significantly change over normal (i.
e. current variability). Monsoon rainfall may increase by 11 per cent by 2030 and 27 per cent by 2070. Also, the general rise in surface average temperature will increase by 1.
3°C by 2030 and 2.6°C by 2070.The Bay of Bengal cyclones originate mostly at latitudes greater than 500N. They move in northerly or north-westerly direction in the beginning and often turn north-easterly towards the coast of Bangladesh. Heavy rain and tidal wave (storm surges) accompany the cyclones, which usually decay after crossing the land Cyclones accuse a great loss of lives and damage property in coastal region.
Table 1: Information on some devastating cyclones that hit Bangladesh Year Month and date Affected area Nature of phenomenon Approx. Damage1876 October Noakhali, Hatiya, Patuakhali, Chittagong Severe storm surges Surge Height: 14m 400000 lives and enormous property lost 1960 October10-11 Noakhali, Hatiya, Char JabbarCyclonic storm Max Speed 129 km/hrSurge Height: 3m 6000 people killed 1963 May28-29 Noakhali, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar Cyclonic storm Max Speed 201 km/hrSurge Height: 6m 11520 people killed 1965 May11-12 Noakhali, Kutubdia Island, Barisal, Chittagong Cyclonic storm Max Speed 161 km/hrSurge Height: 4m 19270 lives lost 1970 November12-13 The entire belt from Khulna to Chittagong Storm surge Max. speed 241 km/hrSurge Height: 10m 500000 people and innumerable animals killed 1985 May 24-25 Noakhali, Hatiya, Char JabbarSandwip, cox’s Bazar, Chittagong Cyclonic storm Max Speed 154 km/hrSurge Height: 4m 11069 lives lost and 135033 livestock lost 1991 April ,29 Patualhali, Barisal, Noakhali, Chittagong, cox’s Bazar, Kutubdia Island 193km/hrSurge Height: 6m Innumerable animals killed1994 29 April-3 May Cox’s Bazar and Coastal Islands 210 km/h 400 people and 8000 cattle1995 21-25 November Cox’s Bazar and Coastal Islands 210 km/h 650 people and 17000 cattle1997 16-19 May Coastal Islands and Chars near Cox’s Bazar , Chittagong, Noakhali, Bhola225 km/h and storm surge reached 3.05 m 126 people1997 25-27 September Coastal Islands and Chars near Cox’s Bazar , Chittagong, Noakhali, Bhola150 km/hStorm surge 1.83-3.05 m 1998 16-20 May Coastal Islands and Chars near Cox’s Bazar , Chittagong, Noakhali, 150 km/h1.83-2.
44 m 1998 19-22 November Islands near Khulna, Patuakhali and Barisal 90km/h1.22-2.44 m 2007 15, November Cyclone Sidr, South-western part of Bangladesh 2000 people death2009 May 25 14 districts of Coastal area of Bangladesh 190 People deaths500000 people home lessSource: Climate Change and fisheries: A Case Study of Noakhali District , IUCN, Bangladesh Country Office , Dhaka, Bangladesh,x+66pp. Mollah , A,R, 2008 .PP:18-19Sea level rise in BangladeshBangladesh is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, as it is a densely populated coastal country of smooth relief comprising broad and narrow ridges and depressions (World Bank, 2000). World Bank (2000) showed 10 cm, 25cm and 1 m rise in sea level by 2020, 2050 and 2100; affecting 2%, 4% and 17.
5% of total land mass respectively. It has also reported that 1.0 cm per year sea level will rise in Bangladesh (Frihy, 2003).UNEP(1989) showed 1.5 m sea level rise in Bangladesh coast by 2030 affecting 22,000 Sq. km (16% of total landmass) area with a population of 17 million (15% of total population) affected.
The rise in the sea level is an obvious of the global warming and will effect Bangladesh catastrophically. The causes of sea level rise are the ocean’s expanding volume as they warm and the melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps.Source: Climate Change and fisheries: A Case Study of Noakhali District , IUCN, Bangladesh Country Office , Dhaka, Bangladesh,x+66pp. Mollah , A,R, 2008 P-24)Studies on climate change hazards and its vulnerabilities in BangladeshVarious studies have been carried out on the impact and vulnerability of climate change in Bangladesh. Warrick et. al.
(1996) carried out one of the pioneer works in Bangladesh to address climate change problems. In this study they tried to present the scenarios of greenhouse effect and climate change within the physical, social and legal frameworks of the country. But they put little emphasis on community resilience build up process.Anwar Ali (1999) discussed the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect.
Some remarks were made in his study on the adaptation option for Bangladesh in the event of climate change.Choudhury et. al (2004) described the socio-economic perspectives of the water related vulnerability to climate change for the selected hydrological unit of Bangladesh. The study has also given a compressive description of the present adaptation policies for adaptation to the climate change induced impacts.Islam (2005) explained that natural hazards or disasters occur in Bangladesh in many forms, the most devastating ones being coastal cyclones, tidal surges, floods and river bank erosion. The disasters like tornadoes, droughts and mild earthquakes also hit the country from time to time. He has also discussed the perception and impact of hazards and the people’s coping strategies with primary focus is on flood hazards but other issues like river-bank erosion and tornado have also received attention.
He mentioned that the most ominous warning is that of the probable sea level rise which is indeed becoming a reality would permanently submerge at least one-fourth of the country’s landmass and directly affect a similar proportion of the population in the next 30-40 years. Baqee (1998) illustrated the uncertainties of the lives and livelihoods of the inhabitants of char-lands in Bangladesh. The study described the survival strategies of the char-people in the face of both natural and man-made crises.
The people have experienced constant environmental changes and they had to adjust as a survival strategy on the chars. He also focused on the process of occupancy, dislocation and resettlement.i. Conceptual/ Theoretical FrameworkVariability in the climate condition is a key driver of change in social and bio-geo-physical environments.
The frequency of a climate change hazard change in the climate condition and has measurable impacts on physical and social systems in the community. To measure the outcomes is very difficult, resulting from direct and indirect effects of several climate and non-climate factors. The level of impact is sensitive and vulnerable which will occur the disaster. A conceptual frame work have been developed to find out the information of climate change impacts and people’s resilience capacity of the research area.Elements of Climate Climate Change Hazards in Subarnachar,Noakhali Impacts of Climate Change 1.Temperature2.
Rainfall3.Wind Direction4.Solar Radiation5. Cloud6. Humidity7.
Evaporation 1.Cyclone2. Flood3. Tornado4. Strom Surge5. River Erosion6.Water Logging 7.
Drought8. Lightening9. Hailstorm10.Salinity Intrusion 1.Human Settlement2. Agriculture3.
Crops4. Sea Level Rise5. Food insecurity6. Human Health7.
Safe –drinking water8. Deforestation9. Fish culture10.
Cattle Framing11.Displacement/Migration12.School hamper13.Collapsethe Communication14. Road network15. Change the Occupation16. Work/Job less17.
Conflict occur18.Sanitation 1.Road accessibility, 2.
Water and Drainage system, 3.Health and hygienic4.Household asset, 5.Intensity of natural resources, 6.
Housing and land use, 7.Social capital, 8.Sanitation, 9.Employment opportunity, 10.Ecosystem services, 11.
Infrastratural development 12.Good Governance, 13.Community Preparedness 14.Finance and savings , 15.Budget and subsidy. People’s Resilience Figure 7: Conceptual Frameworkj.
Research Methodology (i) Design: This study will be done comprising both qualitative and quantitative data. Methodological triangulation; obtaining data from different sources, such as observations, documentations and interviews which will help to harnesses diverse ideas about the same issue and assist in cross-checking the results, and consequently increased the validity, reliability of the findings and data analysis.Primary Data will be collect direct from the field through –questionnaire survey, Face to face interview, Observation, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Key Information Indicator(KII), using GIS tools, digital camera etc.Secondary Data will be collect through literature Review of Books, Articles, Journals etc.
This study will be conduct at Subarnachar of Noakhali which is severely affected by climatic hazard and vulnerable sea coastof Bangladesh. Participant Observation is appropriate for collecting data on naturally occurring behaviors in their usual contexts by engaging both enumerators and some community people. Household survey and in-depth interview in the field or research area are optimal for collecting data on individuals’ personal histories, perspectives, and experiences, particularly when sensitive topics are being explored.
Focus groups are effective in eliciting data by discussing with the expert and experience group of people arranging a meeting with some of them in a specific place . And also in generating broad overviews of issues of concern to the cultural groups or subgroups represented. This study tries to assess the climate change impacts and resilience capacity of costal people in Bangladesh who are vulnerable to climate change hazards primarily by drawing on some empirical experiences and qualitative methods like households survey. Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PRA), Focus Group Discussions (FGD), in depth interview from the male and female headed households has also been employed.Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) ToolIn addition Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) tool will be used to assess the Current level of vulnerabilities and resilience capacity of costal char dwellers.
It is understood that the vulnerabilities and eventually the resilience level would not be same for all parts of the country especially riverine and coastal charareas. CDRI graphically presents information for an area’s climate-disaster resilience. To assess the capacity of climate disaster resilience of costal-people. Five specific dimensions (physical, economical, social, natural, and institutional) will be chosen as the most relevant issues of climate disaster risk reduction in the char land area (ICBR2017,27-29 November 2017, Bangkok, Thailand, Ref.
17).Selection of the study areaThe location was selected for the study in a topic finalize meeting at BUP. Participants have discussed with honorable experts before the board and after long discussions the members of the committee selected study area and finalize the topics .This location of this study was selected on the basis its importance and the adverse impact of climate change (Extreme Climate) on life and livelihood of Subarnachar, Noakhali with the discussion of experts in a topic finalization board at Bangladesh University of Professional (BUP). Professor Dr. Humayun Kabir finalized the title of the topic and study area who is my honorable supervisor assigned by the Bangladesh University of Professional (BUP).
Map-1: a. NoakhaliZilla Map, b. Population density Map of Subarnacahr.Map 1.b shows the population density of Subarnachar . The south-east Mohammadpur union has the least dense population (1-250 per sq.
km) , Char WAPDA and Char Amanullah have the population density 251-500 per sq.km , and the other parts of the upazila have bellow 750 per sq. km. But the average population density of Bangladesh is 1200 per sq.
km. Population of Subarnachar they are very poor and illiterate ,they are basically farmer and fishermen.The study will be conduct on climatic hazard vulnerable riverine and coastal char area of Bangladesh.
SubarnacharUpazila (Noakhali HYPERLINK “http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=Noakhali_District” o “Noakhali District” ) , which area is 382.
12 sq km, located in between 22°28′ and 22°44′ North latitudes and in between 90°59′ and 91°20′ East longitudes. It is bounded by Noakhali Sadar HYPERLINK “http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=Noakhali_Sadar_Upazila” o “Noakhali Sadar Upazila” and Companiganj on the north Hatiya HYPERLINK “http://en.banglapedia.org/index.
php?title=Hatiya_Upazila” o “Hatiya Upazila” Upazila on the south, Companigang and Sandip HYPERLINK “http://en.banglapedia.org/index.
php?title=Sandwip_Upazila” o “Sandwip Upazila” upazilas on the east and Ramgati upazila on the west.(ii) SamplingThere are 56000 Households at Subarnachar of Noakhali among them the sample of the research calculate by the following formula.SamplingProcess will be follow by the following formula:Here, n0= desiresample size,z= level of confidence 1.96 or (95%), P= assumed proportion in the target population estimated to have particular characteristics,q=1-p, d= degree of accuracy desired in the estimated proportion or absolute error or precision. Now, the formula for calculate the Sampling among the populationHere, n= actual sample sizeno= desired samplingN= Total populationno== , Here z=1.
96, p=0.5, then q=1-0.5=0.5, d=?4.88=0.0488 =403= , n0=403, N= 56000=400, Finallyresearch target population will be 400Key Information Indicator (KII):Key Information Indicator (KII) are the interviews with people who have long experience and also important people of the community to get real scenarios of climate change impact and people’s adaptabilities in the society.
(iii) Instrument /tools for the researchMethods Tools Data Source Types of data1.Historical data Analysis Books , Articles , Journals etc. Library, Internet , Meteorological office, Survey office, DC office, Upazila Office •History of Land form(accretion)•Trends of Weather elements•Population size•Trends of agriculture•History of life style and culture2.Questionnaire Survey with the Household head (HH) Interview ScheduleandFormatted Questionnaire 580 households of four study villages •Age, Sex, Marital status, House hold size•Literacy rate, educational status of HH Heads and other HH members•HH gross income , HH gross expenditure, Earning of the respondents•Farmers Category in term of land size•Productive assets (land), HH type, Pond, Livestock, Poultry and cropping pattern•Access to safe water, sanitary latrine, roads, electricity and social network.•Household risks and damages from different hazards, cyclone, storm surge, tidal flood, riverine flood, river erosion, salinity intrusion and drought•Preparedness activities and emergency responses at the household level•Coping strategies with available resources at the household level•The role of women in decision making in different stages of disaster management.3.FGD with Fishermen, Farmers, Male and Female FGD discussions and drawing mapsAnd FGD Checklist Char communities (male and female group) 16 (4×4) FGDs will conduct.
GO and NGO people will be include ? Major household activitiesDaily activitiesHousehold income and expenditure Food securityEducation system? Health care systemVulnerabilities of the char land women and Children? Coping strategies of Char land people? Role of women in hazard preparedness and response•Resilience techniques 4.KII(Key information Interview) KII interview questionnaires and check list With 10 different professional groups(UNO, PIO, UAO,ULO, Chairman, members) •Views, opinions, and suggestions of the key informants •Status of community participation in disaster risk reduction •Necessary demands, existing gaps, roles and responses for disaster management at the local level •Coordination and support from national and sub-national level disaster management services •Challenges and Adaptation process•Climate status and trends and impacts of Climate Change•Resilience types and techniques5.PRA-Social mapping,-Resource mapping ,-Venn diagram ,-Problem ranking- Institutional relations through Venn diagram 3 PRAs from study sites (Each PRA is consisting 10-12 Persons) will be held. •Information on social and educational institutions and their management procedure.
•Catastrophic flood and erosion induced settlement migration risks at community level.•Seasonality of their livelihoods, labor demand and agricultural activities.Co• •Community based coping strategies with available local resources•Responses and demands of local disaster management6.
Case study Electronic device recorder Selected victims from different unions -Historic and experiences-Responses and mode of coping7. Field Observation -Field Book-Transect walk-Digital camera- Geographical positioning system (GPS) Intensively visited study area including the vulnerable sides -Nature and characteristics of disasters-Household and community based coping strategies-Settlement relocation and migration process- Overall socio-environment condition of the study sites.8.CDRI (Climate Disaster Resilience Index) Structured interview schedule through weighted mean index method 400 households of four unionsCDRI Dimensions and Parameters: • Physical Dimension:Housing and land use pattern Accessibility of road Homestead area Water and Sanitation system Cow shed & poultry case • Social Dimension: Family & community kinship Health Household demography Education and awareness Community preparedness for disaster • Economic Dimension: Household income Household assets Land ownership Employment opportunities (IGA) Savings •Institutional Dimension: Access to educationalinstitutions Access to health facilities Access to the nearest growth centers Institutional supports from MFIs and NGOs Institutional support from sub- national and local Govt. •Natural Dimension: Severity of natural hazards Frequency of hazards Severity of damage Food security Availability of resource (iv) Procedure(Analysis Plan)For the systematic analysis of collected raw data d from both primary and secondary sources will be coded and cleaned and the final data base will be prepared using Statistical package for Social Science( SPSS) and Microsoft Excel.
Different types of maps, tables, charts, graphs, sketches, photographs, and photos will be used to analysis.The obtain data from the survey method will be process and analyze with the use of simple mathematical tools as well as MS Excel, SPSS. For more comprehensive and realistic some maps will be produce by the use Arc GIS software. The study will be complete by using the following methods/proceduresSelection of Topic(v) Flow Chart:Literature Review and consultation with ExpertsFormulation of objectivesSelection of the Study AreaData Collection tools DevelopField Test and tool modificationData CollectionPrimary DataKII, CDRI, FGD, Case StudyDifferent Tools of PRAHousehold Questionnaire SurveyObservation and Case Study Secondary DataData Processing and AnalysisFindingsRecommendationsPreparation of Dissertation Conceptual Phase Data Collection Phase Analysis PhaseSource: Proposed Schematic Flowchart of Research Methodology by the Researcherk. Expected result and Significance of the studyBangladesh is almost low- laying deltaic plan land.
It is about 30 m high above the sea level. Subarnachar is one of the traditional and promising upazila in Noakhali district of Bangladesh. Climate change has arisen as the greatest threat to people there. The long term effects of climate change is the main barrier to the progress towards sustainable development. Climate change has negative impact on all aspect of human development including livelihoods, food security, safe water and sanitation, health care and shelter and infrastructure .
The study focuses on the concept of climate change vulnerability and about climate change impacts and response of coastal people of Subarnachar, Noakhali district of Bangladesh., The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impacts that affects the people live and livelihood of the Subarnachar. The study will be also explore the types of hazards prevail in that area and nature of people’s resilience with the hazards and to will focus on people strength to meet the hazard for the better life and livelihoods. Finally the study will develop some recommendations and suggestions for policy makers to take the real policies and plan for sustainable development. l.
Limitation of the StudyEvery research has some limitations and this study also is not free from the limitations. Time is the main constrain because during the cyclone heat and storm surge occurred it is not possible to observe and assess the real scenarios of the affected areas. The study will cover only four villages under four unions of Subarchar ,Noakhali district. The study will conduct mainly on primary observation and some secondary information to check the validity and reliability. The research did not include entire Subarnachar area rather only four extremely sea level rise, storm surge and cyclone induced problems affected villages of four unions were selected. Moreover, these four unions are in distant places. It is a people’s perception based research; it will be try to put local ideas and local adaptation strategies to combat with storm surge, cyclone heat, flood effected problems.
Collected data and information both qualitative and quantitative and people’s opinion based. These opinion’s are the reflection of local residents long time observation, experience and their own thinking which may not be match with scientific decision.m. Time table of the study2018 2019 2020 Sl.No.
Activities J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J Remarks1. Finding the Research Problem 2. Reading the Previous Research Literature 3.
Learning how to use method 4. Prepare the Research Proposal 5. Presentation 1st Seminar 6. Designing questionnaire 7. Recruit the data collector 8.
Piloting the questionnaire 9. Finding respondents 10. Data Collection 11. Analysis the data 12. Presentation 2nd Seminar 13. Draw the GIS map 14. Find out the findings 15.
Writing the draft research 16. Submit to the Supervisors 17. Rewriting the draft 17. Pre Submission Seminar 18. Thesis Submission 19.
Defense for the PhD n. Concluding remarkThe findings of the study will provide a details purview of the types of extreme climatic hazards induced disasters and their impacts on Subarnachar. Climate change impact hazards lead to multifarious risks and are threats on the communities. A national adaptation plan must be develop based on local realities, foster action at local level and address the structural barriers to adaptation by poor people.The experiences and lessons learned will have relevance to politicians, leaders, and researchers in resilience capacity. As the communities are experiencing the success or failure of the afore mentioned programs, perception of climate affected communities shall be very helpful in reassessment of existing adaptation measures. Hope the research findings will inspire others to conduct more in-depth research and assist policies and strategies for better adaptation programme.
o. REFERENCES 1 Abrar, C. R. and Azad, S. N., (2004), coping with displacement: Riverbank erosion in north-west Bangladesh, RDRS Bangladesh: North Bengal Institute: Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit, Dhaka.
2Adrikaet. al. (2011), „Coping with climate change at community level; in Koen de Wilde (edt) „Moving coastlines, Dhaka: the university press limited. pp. 195-206. 3 Ahmed, M. (2003), Coastal Livelihoods and Introductory Analysis, Program Development Office for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (PDO-ICZM).
4Ahmed A.U., Hassan, S.R., Neelormi, S. and Etzold, B.
, (2012). “Where Rain Falls: The Implications of Rainfall Variability on Livelihoods and Migration in Northwestern Bangladesh, United Nations University, Bonn. 5Agrawala, S., Ota, T., AhamedA.
U. et al, (2003). “Development and Climate Change in Bangladesh: Focus on Coastal Flooding and Sundarbans”. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, 70 pp. 174 6Alast (2006), Impact of climate change on the risk of natural disaster, Disasters, vol 30(1): 5-12, Blackwell publishing, Oxford, UK and MA, USA. 7Ali A. 1999.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Research, 12:109-116. 8Ahmed AU and Mirza MMQ.
2000. Review of the Causes and Dimensions of Floods with Particular Reference to Flood’98: national perspectives. In: Perspectives of flood 1998, Q.K. Ahmad, Ed., Dhaka: The University press limited, pp.
142 9 Baqee A., (1998), Peopling in the land of Allah Jaane: Power, Peopling and Environment, the Case of Charlands of Bangladesh , Dhaka: The University Press Limited. 10 BBS (2013).
District Statistics-2011:Noakhali. Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh Dhaka :Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Planning Division, Ministry of Planning. Dhaka, Bangladesh11 Chowdhuri, M. 2001. “Women’s Technological innovations and Adaptations for Disaster Mitigation: A Case Study of Char lands in Bangladesh,” “Expert Group Meeting on “„environmental Management and the Mitigation of Natural Disasters: A Gender Perspective,” Ankara, Turkey, November 6-9. 12 HYPERLINK “https://www.
google.com/url?url=https://www.preventionweb.net/files/11973_GlobalClimateRiskIndex2010.pdf;rct=j;frm=1;q=;esrc=s;sa=U;ved=0ahUKEwjTzZrR8N_aAhWKv48KHfT-CtoQFggTMAA;usg=AOvVaw2lIW0yYzS5PuF89FW4D1w_” Global Climate Risk Index 2010 – PreventionWeb: (Harmeling 2010)13Haque, E. (1997), “Hazards in a Fickle Environment: Bangladesh”, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Vol.
10. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston and London. 14 Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (ICZMP) Project :PDO;2005; WARPO,. Dhaka, Bangladesh 15IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers, WMO, Geneva.
Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4-syr-spm.podf 16Islam, M. N., M. Z.
Islam, and S.T. Akter, (2006), Bank erosion hazards of the Padma river at Zanjira-socioeconomic impacts, Indian Journal of Power and River Valley Development, Vol. 56, Nos. 3 & 4, pp. 123-130.
17 Kabir , Md. Humayun, Satob. M, Habbiba. U andYousuf.
T, B ,2017.Assessment of Urban Disaster Resilience in Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Bangladesh:7th International Conference on Building Resilience;Using scientific knowledge to, ICBR2017,27-29 November 2017, Bangkok, Thailand .18UNDRO (1991) “Mitigation Natural Disasters: Phenomena, Effects, and Options”, UNDRO, Geneva.
19World Bank (2001), Bangladesh: Climate change and sustainable development. World Bank Office, Dhaka. 20 https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU…/WRR_2015_engl_online.pdf21 (Source: healthpolicy.ucla.edu/programs/health-data/trainings/…/tw_cba23.pdf